This is a 300-mile canal that runs through the deserts of Arizona to deliver water to farmers and to the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas. And that group includes the Navajo Nation, the Southern Ute tribe, the Quechan Indian tribe. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. Lake Powell upstream of Lake Mead on the Colorado River is at its lowest level on record. And there is some evidence that this dry period would have happened without our greenhouse gas emissions. As snowpack runoff disappeared into dry ground instead of hitting the reservoirs, engineers calculated a 79% chance Lake Powell will fall below its minimum target water height of 3,525 feet above sea level next year. Institute Executive Director Eric Balken said taking such a step would better position stakeholders to address the drought on their own terms rather than simply running out. Down the Colorado River lies Lake Mead, which is also seeing lower water levels than ever before. Officials managing the effort say computer models show that taking these steps would reduce the risk of catastrophically low levels to near zero. This is prompting a lot of people to ask whats going to happen next. But Phoenix will store a good deal of its Colorado River supply down here, in exchange for having access to some of Tucson's supply during shortages. How does climate change affect you? As an imbalance between water supplies and demands grows in the region, KUNC is committed to covering the stories that emerge. These cookies help provide anonymized information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc. But the last time it was anywhere close to that level was 1999. Facebook sets this cookie to show relevant advertisements to users by tracking user behaviour across the web, on sites that have Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin. If that does come to pass, Tyrell said he is fairly confident we can deal with worst case scenario if it ever happens.. Grim Future for Lake Powell Water levels in Lake Powell are at record lows. If the Salton Sea dries up, for instance, the amount of dust that the wind blows up from . The water level on Lake Powell is 100 feet from its high mark in August 2013. Thanks so much for joining us. Lake Powell is hemmed by the Glen Canyon Dam, which generates hydroelectric power via the dam's water flowing through the dam back into the Colorado River. Water levels have been getting lower and lower, and for the first time ever, a shortage seems almost certain. Its impossible to even guess the odds of the Colorado Basin getting another six-year arid spell any time soon, said Udall and another longtime Colorado River researcher, Connie Woodhouse, a professor in the University of Arizonas School of Geography and Development. Science Friday transcripts are produced on a tight deadline by 3Play Media. Lake Mead's level is 1,047 feet above sea level. The low levels arent just causing hand-wringing among the Wests water officials. However, the receding water levels have already greatly reduced the reservoirs generating capacity, to about 800 megawattsabout 60 percent. Just as water demand is going up, the supply is going down. Lake Powell has been called Jewel of the Colorado by the federal agency that built it, the Bureau of Reclamation. That leaves a sizable deficit and little time to turn things around. Lake Mead and Lake Powell rise and fall together, said Chuck Cullom, the Central Arizona Projects Colorado River programs manager. Its not just like, you get a miracle year and youre out of it. A years worth of rain and snow is missing from Utahs ground. This cookie is set by Facebook to display advertisements when either on Facebook or on a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising, after visiting the website. As Lake Mead outside Las Vegas and Lake Powell in Utah decline, certain policies are triggered into action. The level has risen over the winter months due to rainfall and particularly cold weather to hit parts of the U.S. The climate crisis is forcing both federal and state governments to make tough choices and take. JOHN DANKOSKY: Luke Runyon is a reporter based at KUNC in Fort Collins, Colorado. It's partly that there's less rain and snow, partly that as temperatures rise, plants use more water and more water evaporates out of the soil which would otherwise have ended up in the river. The water levels behind the Colorado Rivers biggest dams are fast-approaching or already at record lows. Lake Powell is the town's lifeline. The Colorado isn't running low on information about water supplies. The regions been looking warily at the reservoirs along this long river that winds its way from Colorados Rocky Mountains all the way to Mexico, just shy of the Gulf of California. Newsweek reached out to the Central Arizona Project for comment. They've been ignoring the problem coming for decades and decades. Climate scientists call it D4. By January, the bureau projects water levels at Lake Mead to fall to 1,065.85 feet nine feet below the first shortage trigger elevation. This cookie is installed by Google Universal Analytics to restrain request rate and thus limit the collection of data on high traffic sites. The test_cookie is set by doubleclick.net and is used to determine if the user's browser supports cookies. Keep reading with a digital access subscription. The four Upper Basin states Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming are devising a three-legged stool plan to protect Lake Powell. Its been a vital force for the intermountain West because of its ability to store vast amounts of water and generate electricity for farmers, cities and towns in 13 states. The wells that now supply Tucson are at 400 - 500 feet under the surface. The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional". "Its unfortunate that thelargely natural occurrence of a drought has coincided with this increasing warming due to greenhouse gases," said Flavio Lehner, aprofessor of atmospheric sciences at Cornell University. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously. The second-largest man-made reservoir in the country has dropped to unthinkable lows amid the West's climate change-driven megadrought. For terms of use and more information, visit our policies pages athttp://www.sciencefriday.com/about/policies/. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. You would have to go back to April of 1937, also twoyears into its initial filling, to find levels that low. "It's tough to see," Levy told 12News. For those talks to start in the middle of another record-breaking dry period should make it clear to everyone involved: the future of the Colorado River is all about learning to live with less. This is the highest percentage of land in the rivers Upper Basin since 2002, which stands as the regions driest year on record. The Department of the Interior had asked the seven states of the Colorado River Compact to come up with a plan to cut between 2 and 4 million acre-feet of water by January. Lake Mead, which is fed by Lake Powell upstream, would likely be the first of the two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels. Lake Powell, the country's second-largest reservoir and a key source of water and power for much of the West, is more parched than ever.Earlier this month, the lake dropped below 25% capacity . The Hoover Dam is therefore also at risk of declining hydroelectric power generation as Lake Mead approaches deadpool levels. LUKE RUNYON: Well, Arizona is in the line for the steepest cuts from the Colorado River. In an emergency request issued in June 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation urged states relying on the Colorado River basin to reduce their water usage by between 2 million and 4 million acre-feet over the next 18 months. The idea that these smaller upstream reservoirs can continue to compensate Powells losses, thats not the case, he said. The river carried an average of 14.7 million acre feet from 1906 through 2015. Powell is not drying out in a vacuum.. It does not store any personal data. The year as I write is now 2018. JOHN DANKOSKY: When you use the term megadrought, that sounds like a newer term. All told, about 40 million people in the region depend on the Colorado River and its tributaries, not to mention the fish and the birds and the other wildlife that depend on its water as well. Dry soils soak up snow when it melts, keeping it from rivers and reservoirs. Udall questioned the validity of using the years before 2000 because the years 1990 to 1999 were very wet and not representative of the weather we see now. So Luke, I dont know is this all just because of climate change? The repercussions of a draining water supply are immense -- farms are drying up, a once-thriving marina now sits more than a mile from lake water and Arizona's Department of Water Resources is . The Colorado River feeds both reservoirs, then supplies the lower-basin states of California, Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico with water. Science Friday is produced by the Science Friday Initiative, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. It takes sustained changes in order for these systems to recover. Kuhns analysis is the worst case, said Pat Tyrrell, Wyoming state engineer who has been involved in the Upper Basin water talks. Work on the dam that created Lake Powell began in 1956 and was finished in 1966. Its important to differentiate between Lake Powell running dry versus Lake Powell dropping below elevation 3,490 [feet], Taylor Hawes, Colorado River program director at the Nature Conservancy, told The Hill in an interview. So, what would happen if Lake Powell dried up? This cookie is set by the provider Akamai Bot Manager. The U.S. Department of the Interior is considering a plan to keep extra water in Lake Powell. At full pool, Powell's water line lies 3,700 feet above sea level, and at 3,370 feet, it will reach deadpool levels. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". If the outlet tubes cant meet the reservoirs needs, she said, the flow of water in the Grand Canyon itself could be reduced to a trickle. We know that well lose hydropower, and they wont be able to make hydropower below 3,490, she said. And data updated Monday from the California Department of Water Resources' tracker show the reservoir climbing to 60%, still below historical levels for February 72% but significantly higher than it had been. Kathryn Sorensen, research director at the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, said it will push water managers further in the direction of finding more permanent solutions. 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